Moscow will halt military steps in Ukraine – only after a US guarantee not to post missile shield there

March 3, 2014, 4:13 PM (IST)
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
Source: http://www.debka.com/article/23724/Moscow-will-halt-military-steps-in-Ukraine-–-only-after-a-US-guarantee-not-to-post-missile-shield-there

As Washington and the Europeans – and especially the UK – continue to decry Russian military aggression, the US and Russians have quietly entered into intense negotiations on a compromise for resolving their dispute over Ukraine, DEBKAfile’s Washington and Moscow sources report.

Moscow insists on keeping in place the military forces which took control of Crimea over the weekend, but is ready to discuss terms for restraining the Russian army from advancing into the Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine.
The exchanges between the two powers are going through Berlin. The German government is making every effort to dispel the winds of war coming in from the east. Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Vladimir Putin conferred Sunday night by phone and decided to talk again about ways of promoting the negotiations.

Our sources were unable to confirm that Merkel ever said to President Barack Obama when she reported on the conversation in reference to Putin that “she was not sure he was in touch with reality. He lives in another world.”

Senior official sources reported instead that the chancellor had proposed to Putin that Russian troops be withdrawn in stages from Crimea and their place taken by European Union observers.

She also suggested that the interim government provide guarantees to refrain from occupying the regions vacated by the Russian army or harming the Russian-speaking populations of Ukraine.

In effect, Chancellor Merkel added her voice to a formulation taking shape in consultations Sunday at EU and NATO headquarters in Brussels, which called for “an inclusive political process in Ukraine based on democratic values, respect for human rights, minorities and the rule of law, which fulfills the democratic aspirations of the entire Ukrainian people.”

Monday, EU foreign ministers began considering how these lofty principles could be applied in practice. One idea gaining ground was for European contact groups to circulate Ukraine and discuss arrangements based on these principles with local authorities.
However, according to our US and Russian sources, Putin is after hard, practical strategic gains, principally, a demilitarized Crimea that would not threaten Russia from its western doorstep.
In fact, the Russian president has couched his demands for further negotiations under four headings:

1.  The Kiev government whichever form it takes must sign an obligation to abstain from any ties with NATO.

2.  Neither the US, NATO or any other power will deploy X-Band or BX-1 radar stations on Ukraine territory whether on land, sea or air. This guarantee would additionally cover elements of an anti-missile missile shield and ballistic missiles placing Russia in their sights.

3.  Restrictions will govern the types of weapons allowed the Ukrainian army.

4.  Local military bodies will be established to protect the Russian-speaking and ethnic Russian regions of Ukraine

Putin emphasized in his conversation with Merkel that, until those four conditions are met, Russian forces would remain where they are in Crimea and if this was deemed necesssary, advance into other parts of Ukraine.

This list of demands was at the back of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s assertion Monday that Russian troops were needed in Ukraine “to protect Russian interests and citizens – until the normalization of the political situation.” Russia, he said, was defending human rights against “ultranationalist threats.”

It was evident from these words and deeds that Moscow finds the interim government in Kiev unacceptable Moscow and will make every effort to remove it.
US Secretary of State John Kerry is scheduled to pay a visit to Kiev Tuesday, March 4. He follows British Secretary of State William Hague who paid homage to the former protesters in the Ukraine Monday. “Russia has created a tens and dangerous situation, Hague said, calling it “the biggest European crisis in the 21st century.”

Such declarations are unlikely to put Putin off his course, but there is little more that the West can do to turn the clock back to a more advantageous moment in the Kiev fracas.

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Bewaffnete Provokationen mit Todesopfern auf der Krim werden womöglich HEUTE verübt und der Konferenz des UN-Sicherheitsrates gewidmet.

Dmitry Tymchuk

Bewaffnete Provokationen mit Todesopfern auf der Krim werden der Konferenz des UN-Sicherheitsrates gewidmet.

Details zu der Anrede des Stellvertretender Minister für Innere Angelegenheiten der Ukraine Mykola Velykovych, dass auf dem Territorium der Krim als Ukrainische Seite verkleidete Unbekannte in der Nacht von 4. März Morde von 3 bis 4 russischer Soldaten planen.

Nach der Information der Gruppe “Informationswiderstand”, haben russische Militärs schon vor einiger Zeit Aufgabe bekommen in Besitz der ukrainischen Schusswaffen zu kommen. Diese Aufgabe wurde erfüllt. Mindestens von einem Stützpunkt der ukrainischen Armee wurden Waffen rausgebracht.

Nach vorläufigen Angaben, genau mit diesen Waffen werden auch gewalttätige Provokationen mit Todesopfern geplannt. Damit man dann “markierte” Waffen der ukrainischen Armee findet und die ukrainische Seite beschuldigen kann.

Gleichzeitig werden die Provokationen nach unserer Information schon in den nächsten Stunden verübt, weil sie zu der Sondersitzung des UN-Sicherheitsrates vorbereitet sind, die von der russischen Seite heute um 22:00 Uhr (Kiewer Zeit) iniziiert wurde. Ziel ist es vor dem Sicherheitsrat den Einmarsch der Russischen Armee wegen der “Aggression und Gewalt seitens der ukrainischen Armee” zu legitimieren.

Quelle:  Dmitry Tymchuk https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/463963517065642

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Nazi Ukraine? Time to STOP Drinking the Kremlin Kool-Aid…

NAZI UKRAINE? TIME TO STOP DRINKING KREMLIN KOOL-AID

By Peter Dickinson
March 1, 2014 Business Ukraine magazine
Source: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10151915737385764&id=318925220763

Ever since anti-government protests first broke out in Ukraine late last year, the Kremlin has adopted a policy of labeling all Ukrainian protesters as fascists. These fascism claims are now being used to justify the military invasion and occupation of Ukraine. What began as a fairly run-of-the-mill Kremlin slur has now taken on the gravest possible historical importance as a justification for war.
In parallel to the military invasion of Crimea, an information war is currently being fought to discourage the international community from going to the aid of Ukraine by portraying events in Kyiv as a fascist coup. The objective is turn Western public opinion against intervention and allow Putin free reign to punish Ukraine for the country’s latest escape attempt.

There are ample indications that the Kremlin is winning this information war. While international media coverage of Ukraine’s Euromaidan protests initially focused on protester demands for European integration, as the protests took on a more militant tone the role of nationalist groups began to receive greater prominence in the international media. This ‘fascist Ukraine’ narrative has led to a heated debate over the morality of supporting Ukraine’s revolution. While the whole world – more or less – cheered Ukraine’s peaceful 2004 Orange Revolution, on this occasion the presence of nationalist paramilitaries in the front ranks of the protests has led to a considerably more circumspect international response and much outright opposition. The Kremlin has skillfully fanned these flames, repeatedly calling on Western governments to denounce the Ukrainian protesters as fascists, Nazis and extremists.

There can be no question that nationalist groups have played a prominent role in Ukraine’s Euromaidan revolution, but there remains much misunderstanding over both the nature and importance of these groups. First and foremost, it is crucial to grasp what nationalism means in the Ukrainian context, and how this differs from traditional Western perceptions. In almost all Western societies, our understanding of nationalism has become intrinsically linked to notions of racism, to the extent that the two are often regarded as virtually indistinguishable. This race-based definition of nationalism is simply not relevant to Ukraine, where the non-white ethnic minority population is negligible. Nevertheless, international attitudes towards Ukraine’s revolution have undeniably been colored by inaccurate associations with what is probably the most widely disliked and discredited political philosophy in modern Western society.

Nationalism in Ukraine is actually rooted in a narrative of national struggle through the centuries. The Ukrainian nationalist mythology is one of oppression and defiance, not superiority and hate. In their own terms, most Ukrainian nationalists tend to see themselves as much closer to the freedom fighters of a liberation movement than to the racial warriors of traditional Western nationalism. Certainly many can be found who hold and espouse racist opinions, but this is a regrettable feature in many non-Western societies. The simple fact remains that in political terms, race is a non-issue for Ukrainian nationalists. This matters because nationalism has become a dirty word in Western society, partly due to its overt associations with racism. Applying this thinking to the contemporary Ukrainian context inevitably leads to distortions which hamper understanding of the political forces at work in the country.

How much influence have these nationalist groups actually had on events in Ukraine? Nationalist shock troops have formed the core of Euromaidan resistance ever since the first Berkut riot police attack of 30 November. They have been in the front lines during every clash, and as the conflict escalated, have become increasingly run along paramilitary lines. However, organized nationalist groups were never the only ones doing the fighting. In fact, a great many of those who volunteered for people’s defense units or joined the fray in other ways were not aligned to any nationalist group. It is impossible to know the individual motivation of each protester, but the goal which I personally heard voiced most often was the simple wish ‘to live in a normal country, with human rights, laws and justice’.

Whatever their individual motivations, the hardcore of fighters was always a tiny minority compared to the numbers who took part in regular rallies in Kyiv and beyond. At its peak, the number of battle-ready youths on Maidan probably never topped 5,000. In contrast, the largest protest rally crowd has been estimated at well over half a million. Hundreds of thousands flooded onto Independence Square on numerous occasions, despite temperatures well below freezing. Every day, hundreds of volunteers manned protest camp kitchens, medical points and occupied state buildings. Few had any political affiliations, nationalist or otherwise. Then there were the AutoMaidan activists who took the protest movement to the roads of Ukraine’s cities, and the Euromaidan protesters in cities across the country. Those who protested in the regime heartlands of East and South Ukraine took enormous risks were subjected to attacks and intimidation, but they still refused to be cowed. Are we to believe that these millions of ordinary Ukrainians were all pawns in a fascist coup?

One of the cornerstones of the fascist coup narrative is the allegation of a surge in anti-Semitism as a result of the protests. However, these claims fail to stand up to close scrutiny. Reports in the international press of rising anti-Semitism have largely been dismissed by local Jewish groups as deliberate misinformation, while a small number of suspected anti-Semitic incidents have since been labeled as likely Russian provocations. As if to underline the point, anti-Semitic graffiti was conveniently discovered on a Simferopol Synagogue as Russian troops invaded Crimea. In reality, numerous Ukrainian Jewish groups have appeared – and been warmly welcomed – on the Euromaidan stage to demonstrate their solidarity and support for the protests. Thousands of Ukrainian Jews have also participated individually in the protests, attending rallies, volunteering to help out at protest camps and posting online to debunk the Kremlin’s anti-Semitic slurs. A former Israeli army officer even led a battalion of fighters on Maidan – some of them fellow Jews – and has since proudly recounted his experience to the Israeli media. Members of Ukraine’s Jewish community were also among those killed in the government crackdown. Needless to say, none of these Jewish Euromaidan participants believes that a fascist coup is underway in Ukraine.

While the evidence of widespread Jewish support for Ukraine’s revolution should be enough in itself to discredit the Kremlin’s ‘fascist coup’ narrative, the last word in the debate should probably go to the residents of Kyiv. After all, they have been the eye-witnesses to the unfolding drama and should know better than anyone what has really been going on in the Ukrainian capital.

Kyiv residents backed Euromaidan from the very outset, and this support was only galvanized by repeated police crackdowns and escalations. It is no exaggeration to say that without this resounding support, the protests would simply not have been possible. Kyivites provided the food, fuel, clothing and medicines to sustain a vast army of protesters spread out across numerous buildings and encampments. They volunteered in their thousands, and also offered up their homes to allow the constant stream of protesters arriving in the capital a place to take a hot shower and some warmth. Support in the Ukrainian capital reached a crescendo on 20 February when thousands of ordinary Kyivites responded to news of the massacre on Maidan by flocking to the square with whatever food and medical supplies they could muster. It was a staggering display of bravery and defiance which was very much in keeping with the manner in which local residents had supported the protest movement. Is Kyiv a fascist stronghold? Of course not. Today’s Kyiv is a Russian-speaking city with a population of close to four million drawn from every corner of the country. It is Ukraine’s most diverse city. The fact that it is also a resoundingly pro-European, pro-democracy city speaks volumes for the poverty of the nationalist/fascist narrative.

Events in Ukraine raise a wide range of legitimate concerns – not least over the use of violence against state security forces and the questionable constitutional legitimacy of the new government. However, the charge of fascism simply does not tally with the first-hand experiences of those who took part in the protests. It is a deliberate distortion of events which serves Russian interests by playing on understandable Western sensitivity to the horrors of WWII-era fascism, while grossly exaggerating the importance of extremist elements within a multi-million strong mass protest movement. Russia urgently needs to be told that the international community does not accept its fascist coup narrative and regards its invasion of Ukraine as a clear act of military aggression. With the existence of a sovereign European country now under direct threat, the time has come to stop drinking the Kremlin Kool-Aid.

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Appeal to the International Investment Community on the Situation in Ukraine

Appeal to the International Investment Community
on the Situation in Ukraine

We, the representatives of Ukraine’s major investment banks and economic think tanks, have always refrained from engaging in political statements while serving the needs of our foreign clients. We have aimed to remain professional and provide unbiased coverage of events in Ukraine, and we are grateful to our clients and partners for many years of positive cooperation.

Today, the territorial integrity and sovereign future of Ukraine is under serious threat, and we are seeking your help. We ask that you use all the means at your disposal to promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Despite assurances from Russia that it is not interfering in Ukraine’s internal affairs, we observe that Russian armed forces continue to engage in active and illegal military maneuvers on the territory of Ukraine. Local administrative buildings and airports in Crimea have been seized. Armed units are also attacking Ukrainian military forces, which are showing considerable restraint while awaiting a negotiated, peaceful settlement.

We refute the Kremlin’s aggressive statements in recent days regarding the “extraordinary” situation in Ukraine and the “threat to the lives of Russian citizens”, which, according to Vladimir Putin, form the basis for the invasion of Russian troops onto the territory of a sovereign state until a “normalization of the social and political situation.”

We underscore the following:
– The situation in Ukraine is no longer extraordinary. The domestic political conflict has been resolved, presidential elections have been scheduled, and a new government has been appointed.

– The new government of Ukraine is entirely legitimate. 328 Members of Parliament – 73% of all MPs and above the 300-vote constitutional super-majority threshold – voted to remove ex-President Viktor Yanukovych from office. A total of 371 Members of Parliament (82% of all MPs) voted to approve Arseniy Yatseniuk as Ukraine’s new Prime Minister. EU member states, the United States and Canada have all recognized the legitimacy of the new government.

– In order to avoid an all-out military conflict and the loss of human lives, the Ukrainian authorities have purposely refrained from engaging in military action in Crimea. This exposes the Russian fabrication that its citizens residing in Ukraine are in danger. Despite Russia’s full-fledged military intervention, Ukraine has not blocked international borders and people are free to travel to and from Russia.

– On the basis of the above points, the threat to the lives of Russian citizens and citizens of other countries stems solely from the presence and actions of Russian military units currently located on the sovereign territory of Ukraine. We believe that a “normalization of the social and political situation” in Ukraine is not possible while Russia continues to interfere, militarily and otherwise, in Ukraine’s internal affairs.

We appeal to Western governments, including the U.S. and the UK, guarantors of Ukraine’s territorial integrity under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, to exercise diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia, whose actions pose a real and significant threat not only to Ukraine’s sovereignty, but also to peace in all of Europe.

The successful resolution of a protracted domestic political crisis and the formation of the new government opens new opportunities for Ukraine. We welcome the efforts of our partner-countries that are aimed at strengthening democratic values and establishing effective economic policies in Ukraine. We commit to provide unbiased coverage of events in Ukraine and to constructively criticize the policies of the new government.

We appeal to our clients, partners, foreign competitors, and all other stakeholders to deliver our message to your respective governments. We count on your support and on the solidarity of investment banks and economic think-tanks in all countries, especially in Russia.

This appeal has been signed by:
SP Advisors
CASE Ukraine
Dragon Capital
Concorde Capital
ART Capital
Eavex Capital
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting

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BREAKING – Deadly Provocations in Crimea Scheduled to Coincide with the UN Security Council Meeting

03.03.2014, 19:49
Source: Dmytro Tymchuk via Facebook
Translated by Voices of Ukraine

Armed provocations in Crimea involving multiple deaths will be “scheduled” to coincide with the UN Security Council meeting.

A clarification to the statement of the Deputy Minister of Internal of Affairs of Ukraine, Mykola Velychkiv, in which he said that on the night of March 3rd, a murder of 3 or 4 Russian soldiers is planned by unidentified parties disguised as Ukrainians.

According to the information received by the Information Resistance group, several days ago, the Russian military had received orders to capture firearms from the Ukrainian military. They succeeded at this mission – the occupants removed firearms from at least one of the Ukrainian military units.

Preliminary data indicates that these weapons are planned to be used in provocations that will result in killings – with the intention to “find” firearms code-marked as belonging to Ukrainian soldiers, and accuse them of the deaths.

Our data also suggests that these provocations may happen in the next few hours, to coincide with the extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council, initiated by Russia and scheduled for today, 10 PM GMT+2. This way, the Russian side will be able to claim “aggression and violence on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” as an argument to justify its actions.

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