Monday, March 17, 2014, 21:55
Phones, cameras and tablets of the journalists from Ukraine, Norway and Poland that were snatched at the Crimean Commissariat in Simferopol have been passed to Russia’s FSB. The journalists were told about this by the self-proclaimed representatives of the Crimean army.
“Your equipment is there – talk to Moscow,” reporters were told on Monday.
View original post 61 more words
Monday, March 17, 2014, 21:36
The Finance Ministry of the Russian Federation does not exclude the introduction of special tax regimes for Crimea for a transitional period when the peninsula is included into Russia.
Interfax Ukraine reports that the topic was raised by Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov, who oversees tax topics.
View original post 66 more words
Monday, March 17, 2014, 21:22
The Verkhovna Rada approved a decree of by Acting President Olexandr Turchynov on a partial mobilization. The decision was supported by 275 national deputies. By law, all oblasts were ordered to conduct a partial mobilization of those available military service. “Mobilizations in Crimea and the city of Sevastopol shall be carried out a number of citizens who voluntarily expressed their desire to be mobilized,” the law states.
View original post 178 more words
Dmitry Tymchuk, Information Resistance
Information Resistance
March 17, 2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
Dear friends, there is an addition to our Information Resistance group – “in the face of” serious economists. Allow me to introduce their first overview in the context of all IR activities.
Economic results of March 17, 2014
In Ukraine, the foreign exchange market is cautiously optimistic about the consequences of the so-called “referendum” in Crimea. The hryvnia rate was supported by the news on sanctions imposed against persons involved in the occupation of Crimea.
In Russia, the foreign exchange market is relatively stable – it reacted with restraint to the announced results of the so-called “referendum” in Crimea. Stock speculators fell into a short-lived euphoria after the announcement of its results. However, experts give weak predictions about the rates of Russian shares. A capitalization of the largest Russian companies remains at the level to which it fell after it was announced that the Russian troops were entering Crimea in early March of 2014.
The main news of the day:
1. Russian rouble did not fall against the dollar on March 17 – despite the sanctions imposed by the West against Russian officials and politicians: the rate of the Russian currency has declined from 36.64 per dollar on March 14 to 36.65 rubles per dollar. As a reminder, on March 3, 2014 the rate fell from 36.18 to 36.38 rubles per dollar. In early March, the retention of the ruble from a sharp collapse cost the Central Bank of the Russian Federation more than $10 billion in foreign exchange reserves. Keeping the ruble from decline after the start of the intervention proved to be an expensive feat for the Central Bank of Russia: the total volume of foreign exchange intervention totaled more than $19 billion, which constituted about 4% of the foreign exchange reserves.
2. The Russian Federation expected the EU and the U.S. sanctions against Russia to be much tougher than announced. As a result, the prices of the Russian shares rose slightly – the stock index on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) grew from 1237.43 on March 14, to 1283.7 points. That is almost 4%. The minimum achieved on March 14 – 1237.43 points – is the lowest value of the stock index during MICEX since the occupation of Crimea.
As a reminder, on March 3, 2014, the first working day after the Russian troops were deployed into Crimea, the index fell from 1444.71 to 1288.81, which is about 12.5%.
Because of the fall in equity prices, the capitalization of the Russian companies fell compared with the “prewar” rate for approximately $55 billion.
3. One of the world’s largest investment banks, UBS, lowered the cost forecasts of leading Russian shares on March 17. In particular, it reduced the predictive value of the “Gazprom” shares from $4.65 to $3.5. The forecast on “Sberbank” [largest bank in Russia] shares was downgraded from 150 to 130 rubles. Thus, the reduction rate is projected to be about 28% for Gazprom and about 15% for Sberbank. They account for the largest share of transactions on the Russian stock market. Both companies are largely state-owned and are the largest joint-stock corporations in Russia. Forecasts reflect the concerns about the risks faced by the Russian business in connection with sanctions and the escalating situation [in Crimea.]
4. On the Ukrainian interbank market, the rate of hryvnia stabilized at 9.9/10.15 hryvnia per dollar after a morning decline to 9.7/10.20 hryvnia per dollar on March 17. The National Bank has set the official exchange rate for March 18, 2014 at 9.7568 hryvnia per dollar. On March 17, the National Bank did not enter the interbank foreign exchange market. The rate of hryvnia formed in the evening of March 17, 2014 on the interbank market suggests that the cash market will be stable near the level of 9.6/10.25 hryvnia per dollar. Slight depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar on Monday, the next day after the so-called “referendum,” indicates the positive market expectations regarding the situation in Ukraine.
Information Resistance
17.03.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
Brothers and sisters, here is the summary for March 17, 2014 (for summary from the previous day, see Summary of March 16.
The main alarming uncertainty of this day is the fate of the Ukrainian military in Crimea. They are being presented with ultimatums and coerced into betrayal, but they keep standing firm. But their future is unknown, which is particularly frightening.
According to our data, the General Staff is preparing backup plans for evacuating these military bases (they must be available in any case). But we haven’t yet heard a clear statement on this issue from the Ukrainian command.
1. The Kremlin is pretending to be a village idiot, once again denouncing all and any participation in recent events – and instead, handing out advice titled “How to Save Ukraine.” The highlights of that include turning Ukraine into a non-aligned federation [no NATO membership] without Crimea, but with two official languages. In short, everything that insidious agents have been trying to sell to Ukrainians for a while now.
Perhaps we should appreciate this concern for Ukraine’s destiny, and reciprocate with some suggestions of our own. Maybe we could suggest that Russia adopts Islam as an official religion? Or maybe Dmitry Medvedyev undergoes a sex reassignment surgery? Or perhaps the Russian [two-headed] eagle [the official state emblem] loses one of its heads, and holds a swastika in its claws? Suggestions along these lines would be equally, if not more, appropriate than Putin’s ultimatums and meddlesome advice to Ukrainians about how they should live their lives.
In any case, the Kremlin’s behavior continues to frighten. Its inhabitants are so removed from reality that the fact that they possess nuclear weapons is becoming the world’s biggest problem.
2. Russia’s FSB [Federal Security Service] is issuing small arms to any member of the so-called “Crimean self-defense,” in an organized fashion. While failed criminals parading as leaders of Crimea are all but declaring war on Ukraine.
This looks like a new Moscow-made plan for the further grab of Ukrainian land. If Putin fails to snatch up the east of Ukraine, he will still be trying to steal at least Kherson, Mykolayiv and Odesa oblasts [regions], to add to his Crimean prize. This must be why the SBU [Security Service of Ukraine] and the border guards are already arresting large numbers of Russian saboteurs and spies in those areas.
3. Light has been shed on the plans of the Russian Ministry of Defense concerning Ukrainian survey flights over the Russian borderland areas: to show Ukrainians that there are, allegedly, no troops there. The MoD’s grand gesture offers Ukrainians to inspect “the rayons [districts] of Belgorod and Kursk oblasts [regions] adjacent to the Ukrainian border.” Earlier today, I wrote that the main Russian forces ready for invasion are concentrated elsewhere, namely, the Rostov oblast and Krasnodar kray [region]. We’re seeing a traditional Kremlin-style con here.
Another amusing detail is the fact that the Russians are insisting that the Ukrainian side uses a Russian helicopter (with Russian crew, naturally). Even though the Ukrainian Air Force has a specialized AN-30 helicopter intended for verification flights [such as this one], and well-trained specialists with plenty of experience in such surveys. In short, Russians believe they have a cunning plan, and the rest of the world is blissfully unaware of it. What else is new?
1. The Ukrainian authorities finally announced partial mobilization. It came as a response both to the Crimean “referendum” and to the Moscow-provoked events in the Southeast of Ukraine.
Mobilization will simultaneously strengthen two armed formations with considerably different tasks – namely, the army and the National Guard. The former would be used to fight the enemy’s regular army, and the latter, to destroy gangs. This means that Kyiv is demonstrating that it’s preparing for all possible operations of Moscow, be it an armed invasion or the “Crimean scenario” (actions of the so-called “self-defense” supported by mysterious “little green men”). Such foresight on the part of Kyiv is reassuring.
And most importantly, this is already a response to Russia. However this ends, the oppressive inaction is behind. This is very positive.
2. The chaos and clashes provoked by Russia in eastern Ukrainian cities are clearly dying down. Without them, Moscow’s plans to “assist its compatriots” in Donetsk and Kharkiv are going straight to hell. No chaos – no invasion of eastern Ukraine. It is, however, possible that Russian and pro-Russian degenerates will catch their breath and continue their bloody circus.
3. Pavel Petrenko, the Minister of Justice, stated that Ukraine will demand compensation of damages and lost property, from Russia. The total amount is USD 80 billion, even without indexation. At the same time, our MFA declared that Ukraine is recalling its Ambassador in the Russian Federation, Volodymyr Yelchenko.
Now, this is behavior appropriate for a state that has come under attack, and adequate responses to the aggressor. Previous responses by the Ukrainian authorities were more reminiscent of bashful complaints of a dainty ingenue who’s been insulted by a drunk sailor.
Moscow, of course, immediately made a racket that in case of a return to the “zero option,” it will demand $20 billion from Kyiv (including indexation invented by Putin). If the Kremlin could count, they would see that $80 bilion minus $20 billion still equals $60 billion in the positive, for Ukraine. But it looks like these guys are not ones for basic math.
Overall, this wasn’t the worst day since the start of the Russian invasion. May the new day bring us more good news.
