March 17, 2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
Regarding the announcement of partial mobilization in Ukraine (the post is written due to the media outcry of “Ukraine is declaring war on Russia!”)
We must understand that although the world-known rule says, “mobilization equals war,” our particular situation is very different.
1. First of all, it will help finalize the staffing of the military units. Continuous reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over many years played a rather nasty joke on us. The idea is (and the military are well-aware of it) that theoretically, we can mobilize even a million people, creating not just brigades, but entire army corps and national militia armies – we have enough weapons for that. But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine are formed out of the blue, then the “combat value” of such formations will be highly questionable.
In fact, these armies would be “cannon fodder,” incapable of carrying out combat missions effectively. As the army was being reduced, fewer and fewer young people served in the military each year, and subsequently, fewer received military occupational specialties and practical skills with weapons systems (and considering the level of combat training in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even these lucky ones were hardly prepared for real action). Reservists were not summoned for training exercises (the so-called “guerrilla training”), where they could have refreshed their knowledge. Thus, we have a very limited military reserve that is truly combat-ready.
Therefore, it makes sense to send the mobilized personnel only to the preexisting units, which will be staffed to their full capacity. In them, the low preparedness level of the mobilized personnel will be offset by the presence of professionals. In fact, this is the logic behind the current mobilization (into the Armed Forces, that is, because the National Guard is topic for a separate conversation.)
2. Mobilization does not mean that we are entering into a full-fledged war. At least due to the fact that it is unclear how Russia intends to act in our Southeast.
If the invasion starts here, by the operational and tactical groups of Russian troops crossing our border (we do not see the formation of such units yet – we only observe a chaotic accumulation of Russians near our border), that will be a full-fledged armed conflict, i.e war. Then we can talk about counteracting and repelling the aggression, by means of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
However, it is most likely (at least, that’s the picture we see today) that the Kremlin plans to carry out the same semi-guerrilla “non-classical” operation that we’re currently seeing in Crimea. That is, Russia is seeking to destabilize the situation in our eastern cities, forcefully seize government authorities with the help of local separatists, and then declare some sort of “eastern republics.” Then, out of nowhere (that is, across our holey, or practically wide open borders), Russian “little green men” would appear, aided by gangs (of so-called “self-defense”) staffed by locals.
Under these conditions, using the Armed Forces would be very problematic, as there would be no front line and no traditional armed confrontation between regular combat troops. This is where, we need such formations as the National Guard (Internal troops), geared towards search and neutralization of armed gangs, as well as neutralization of saboteurs.
Thus, the current mobilization in Ukraine is a vital necessity and an indication that the country is able to defend itself. However, at this point, it’s still difficult to say how precisely this tool will be used in practice.
You can find the original article (in Russian) at: http://flot2017.com/posts/new/mobilizacija_v_ukraine_chto_za_nej_stoit