Voices of Ukraine

Dmitry Tymchuk, Information Resistance

Translated by Olga Klymenko, Voices of Ukraine and edited by Voices of Ukraine

8:00 am local time

According to Information Resistance group’s operational data, last night in Crimea, a Russian soldier shot a Ukrainian officer, who had remained loyal to the oath of allegiance to the people of Ukraine.

In particular, in the village of Novofedorivka [Crimea] at 23:45, a Russian serviceman, Junior Sergeant Ye. S. Zaitsev, killed – in two shots at point-blank range – a serviceman of the military unit No. 1100, Major K. [Major Stanislav V. Karachevskyy], who was preparing to leave for the mainland, in his hostel room.

Captain A. Yermolenko, who was also in the room, had been beaten and abducted by Russian troops – Russian servicemen had also taken the body of the Ukrainian major.

9:00 am local time

Update from Dmitry’s Tymchuk Information Resistance group

According to Information Resistance group’s current data, this morning Donetsk separatists have been given a plan of action from their coordination centre in Russia.

Among the plan’s points – creation of the regional coordination centre “Donetsk Republic” for coordination of actions of separatists in other regions and announcement about the referendum on state structure.

At the same time a previous plan of the Kremlin’s was corrected – the point about annexation of the south-eastern parts of Ukraine to Russia was removed. According to some reports, Moscow has realized that after “consuming” Crimea, it is not ready to absorb the east of Ukraine.

Thus, separatists have received the full status of “canon fodder.”

At the same time, the  Information Resistance group network does not observe any special activity in those regions of Ukraine on the border with Russia where current events are taking place. We continue monitoring the situation.

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10:00 am local time

Information Resistance group‘s operational data about the capture of the Donetsk Regional State Administration

Of the six separatist leaders who organized the assault, during their negotiations with “special forces” four of the separatists were leaning towards taking the occupiers out of the building. Why their readiness to make concessions was not realized by “special forces” is unknown.

At the same time, of the leaders who “stormed” during the night, negotiations have demonstrated that they have no common ground for further action.

Presently, there are only two separatist leaders at the building of the Regional State Administration (four of the leaders who hesitated/wavered have left the building).  The remaining separatists are following the decision-making of Eastern front commander Eduard Akopov.

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11:00 am local time

“Donetsk Syndrome”

Unfortunately, our law enforcement has not been able to fulfill the “negotiation potential” in their dialogue with separatists overnight, who have seized the Donetsk Regional State Administration (and other government authority besides the ones in Donetsk).

Moreover, this morning, Russian wardens “updated” their plan for Donetsk separatists, by taking out a paragraph about “annexation of the Southeast of Ukraine to Russia.” Basically, this is the beginning of  Moscow’s “discharge” of Ukrainian separatist movements, defined as “canon fodder” in the Kremlin games. 

I don’t know if this was aconsequence of the Kremlin’s problems incurred in Crimea, and that it is afraid it won’t be able to swallow new Ukrainian regions. Or such an adjustment happened as a result of international pressure. Although it is quite possible that all these factors played a role.

Although, it is impossible to exclude the possibility that the Kremlin’s vision of the situation might change tomorrow.

In any case, this news is not the most pleasant for separatists. Because, if they start talking about the “independence” of their oblast, such a slogan won’t be that popular. Since the 10% of the local population dying to leave Ukraine are counting only on the fact that Putin will come in and present every one of them with an estate and shares of “Gasprom.”

If they start talking, not about “independence” but about federalization, then the initiators of the present mayhem won’t be able to escape responsibility. And they definitely don’t want to be in places the young Yanukovych grew up in [prison].

But at the same time, the current change in Moscow’s plan does not remove the threat of Russian invasion to “protect their fellow countrymen” and to ensure “the right to self-determination.” Meanwhile, the “Abkhazian option” is no better than the “Crimean option” for Ukraine.

The separatist leaders (the majority of them are not brazen fanatics, but rather calculating and pragmatic gentlemen) are well aware of all these positive and negative factors for them. What makes it possible to influence the further course of negotiations on their future decisions?

On the one hand, one may wonder: why should law enforcement lead any type of negotiations, when they should act? Are they called “enforcement” in vain? Where is the active use of force?

It’s a relative question. On the other hand, one should understand the existing situation in the region.

Intelligence agencies and law enforcement seek to avoid the “meat grinder” at all costs. Because, as I noted earlier, this would give Russia an excuse to “help” by holding a “referendum” in the region through the use of troops.

Besides, Kyiv is currently at an impasse and without a threat of Russian invasion.

Perhaps there no reason to hide the fact that a very large part of law enforcement officers in the eastern regions have simply removed themselves from fulfilling their duties. Sabotage is underway, and it is of threatening proportions (for obvious reasons, we are not giving estimates, but I can admit that they are not overly optimistic).

However, the problem could have been solved by using the potential the SBU [Security Service of Ukraine] and the MVD [Interior Ministry] have in place already (both the “locals,” and the employees who could come from other regions).

However, the use of this potential is rather limited. Using this potential at its full capacity would be made possible only under a state of emergency in Ukraine.

But everyone knows full well that the announcement of a state of emergency would clearly disrupt the [Presidential] elections of May 25, 2014. Failing to hold these elections would mean giving Russia the reasons to dwell upon the matter of “illegitimate government” in Ukraine. And, as a result, a permanent destabilization of the situation in Ukraine.

How the Ukrainian government will continue to break down the “Donetsk syndrome,” and how far they are ready to go in their attempts to resolve the problem, it’s difficult to say. Special forces are claiming that they will not allow the situation to cross the critical line. But after last night’s events, this line has come a bit closer.

http://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/tymchuk/53425982e1b51/