Yury Kasyanov: The premonition of a great war.

By Yury Kasyanov, Armiya SOS volunteer activist
10.31.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

The premonition of a great war. The closer it is to the front, the stronger it is. The stronger the feeling, the sharper the contrast with the real state of affairs. No visible signs of the promised layered defense, no solid front line. The troops are still fragmented—from one junction to another; a hodge-podge—detachments of brigades are scattered from north to south, and thoroughly mixed, as if on purpose… Manageability of the troops is bad, coordination between the departments and between different branches of service is awful, the unified command commands only on paper, surveillance is almost absent, and the military officers struggle to find their dependents along the whole front.

There are no mobile and well-armed battalion tactical groups that would be capable of carrying out offensive operations, crushing the enemy forces, and acting independently. Not enough long-range ammunition for artillery, and the artillery itself, just like the rest of the military equipment, is mostly defective. As before, the main instrument of communication and control in the war is the mobile phone…and the worst thing, our commanders are still the same—generals from the time of the surrender of Crimea, the “heroes” of Ilovaisk, the architects of the “deblockade” of the 32nd Checkpoint, and the impending surrender of the 31st, 30th, 29th…

They are getting ready for war. Creating mobile strike groups from regular Russian detachments and mercenaries, concentrating them on the direction of impact, “stealing” bridgeheads, harrying our units with constant shelling; carrying out reconnaissance-in-force, sending in sabotage and recon groups, carrying out subversive work…

The war will happen. It seems inevitable. Whether we want it or not—does not matter. Putin has his own plans. Most likely, they will strike from Volnovakha towards Berdyansk, punching through a land corridor to Crimea; and from Bryanka towards Lysychansk, with the consequent encirclement of our northern group in Shchastya, and the central one in Debaltseve. They are unlikely to attack head-on; the battle for Donetsk airport is not only an exhibition of courage and the resilience of our fighters, but also a way to pull in, to tie down our forces. For the same reasons they are shelling and attacking Mariupol, Debaltseve, Shchastya. The offensive should be expected at other parts of the front…

We are for “peace.” We are not responding adequately. Not defending our positions. Losing people. Negotiating prices for gas. Agreeing to pay the “debts”… after they took Crimea from us and destroyed most of the industry in the east. After they killed so many of our people. On the eve of a new offensive. One step away from the loss of Ukraine’s freedom and independence.

Source: Yury Kasyanov FB

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3 Responses to Yury Kasyanov: The premonition of a great war.

  1. EU_simple_citizen says:

    That’s a very concerning article, and completely in contradiction with this one : https://maidantranslations.com/2014/11/09/arestovich-the-ukrainian-army-reached-a-turning-point/
    That would be great if there was some consistence in the reports.
    Guys, we support you but we need to have reasonable hints on what is the actual situation to keep credibility while pushing arguments to post-modern westerners. They use excessive discrepancies to justify not taking any decision.
    It is easy to discredit the thugs from DNR/LNR, given the numerous pictures and films showing their horrible behavior (in particular with prisoners). Moreover, their leaders are so primitive in their political expression that it won’t be possible for them to be ever taken seriously. By opposition, you guys have been until now far more civilized, intelligible and properly behaving. But there is a clear lack of discipline. That looks little bit too much like a mess.
    Don’t think the fight is over. It will take strong resolve both on the ground, to win the war; but also on Internet and media to be victorious in the merciless information war waged by Kremlin drones. And for the latter, you guys need as much support as possible from the citizens of the democratic world. Thanks for helping us helping you.
    Good luck for the coming days. That will be tough. But Cyborgs have shown that Ukrainian citizens are as tough as the situation !

    • real7772013 says:

      Thank you for your reply. About contradictions with articles – really we have no contradiction. One article is about soldiers and officers. The other about deals of our authorities. To be honest, those two are themselves in real contradiction. Our soldiers want to defend our country. Our authorities…. They really don’t believe in our soldiers and our country. And this is a really great problem in all of this.

      Further, we are not here to present some singular consistent picture of Ukraine, that’s propaganda, but rather to create space for the often contradictory tendencies, voices and situations that constitute a truer picture of the reality of life on the ground in Ukraine at the current moment. That is the actual situation and we won’t lie about it. Some hard truths are painful. It’s really no different anywhere else. We do thank you for your consistent and ongoing support of Ukraine. Yes, it needs it!

  2. EU_simple_citizen says:

    Thanks for having taken the time to put together this answer.
    The honesty of the comment is much appreciated. It helps to understand the complexity of the situation.
    It is clear that authorities have shortcomings. The fact that there are still Russian moles and heavily corrupted senior officers is not playing in favor of optimism. But we have to be fair also : they are engaged in a very difficult game. Ukraine needs western money to survive the Russian aggression, and EU politicians are certainly using this as a way to exert pressure on Poroshenko and the government. Also, it doesn’t seem that the fortifications built by the Ukrainian army are strong enough to sustain a full scale attack by the Russians. The administration knows it and is certainly afraid of moving too bluntly to avoid providing to Russia an obvious reason to wage a full scale war.

    So every day that goes should be focused on improving these, and training.. training, training, training.. Guys, the drill is the foundation of a strong fighting organization. (doesn’t need to be sadistic as in the Russian army BTW. Just rigorous and focused).
    Also, if there is not much support from the powers in place, soldiers and volunteers should simply look for self-organization. But they need to improve the Command & Control piece on the front. What is visible through internet shows a lot of tactical prowess, but this is then wasted by the inability to coordinate actions at higher level (kind of France in 1940). I cross fingers and hope this will be solved. The day these courageous citizens, volunteers and soldiers, are able to reach a higher degree of coordination, there won’t be much left on the other side.

    However, wars are before all a matter of will and persistence. And Ukrainian citizens, in the last few months, have shown an incredible resilience. I simply hope they won’t waste their energy in unnecessary disputes.

    It really matters to more and more of us, citizens of rich and lazy western Europe, as it is showing that Russia is not anymore what it was during soviet union. If Ukrainians, abandoned by the democracies, and betrayed by numerous senior officials, are able to resist successfully, then we should not be afraid. And actually we are not. Europe lacks will and courage. But it has everything Russia has, from heavy weaponry to nuclear arms. Its population is far bigger, economies are far more robust. We do not need the US to put an end to Russian imperialism. We simply need courage and will. That’s what Ukrainian citizens are teaching us.

    Finally, I would state that Russia is actually not too excited about a full war. Putin and his thugs know how really weak they are. If they were ready, they would have done it already. They don’t give a damn about why the West is thinking. And that’s exactly why it is right time to hit him as hard as possible. As an historical analogy, it looks in some way like the rearmament of Rhineland. Historians agree that it would have been the best time to strike Hitler and stop him, even better than Munich in 1938. Seems that we do not learn from history.

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