Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – September 1, 2014

Dmitry Tymchuk, Coordinator, Information Resistance
09.01.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

Brothers and sisters!

information_resistance_logo_engHere’s the Summary for September 1, 2014 (for previous summary, please see Summary for August 27).

The bad news:

1. It is absolutely obvious that Putin will not back down. Meanwhile, if the Ukrainian government thinks that appeals by some European leaders “to resolve the conflict with political means” make [any] sense, it is clearly mistaken. To accept the “political” solution to the crisis is possible only by accepting the loss of, if not all, then (in the beginning) a part of the Donbas.

Putin–either himself or through the mouths of the terrorists–will demand the recognition of the “DNR” and “LNR” [Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics] as separate “states” outside of Ukraine. If Ukraine does not agree to that, he is ready to accept the “DNR” and “LNR” as unrecognized (or rather–recognized by only a handful of misfits led by the Russian Federation) quasi-state formations–obviously, under the tacit protectorate of Russia. This is the version akin to Transnistria and Abkhazia.

In the course of negotiating an option of some autonomies and other federal entities (which Kyiv could agree to as a compromise), these can be discussed only as pulling the leg of the world community. Putin doesn’t need Donbas under the slightest control of Kyiv, do not have any illusions [about it].

And so, to begin negotiations with a view to “peacefully settle the conflict” can only be done after mentally saying goodbye to the territories that are currently controlled by the terrorists.

But we all know too well that Putin needs the “LNR” and “DNR” only as a springboard for further destabilization of the situation and exclusion of the entire south and east from Ukraine. The Kremlin doesn’t need the heaps of Donbas–it needs the scientific and industrial potential of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, as well as the strategic territory in the south represented by Odesa, Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts (in terms of support of Crimean livelihood and the connection to Transnistria, and taking control of the entire Ukrainian coast of the Azov and the Black Sea). This is a minimal program. Where the Moscow’s potentate [ambition] brings him next–is another question.

It is possible to stop this scenario only with force, and only now. We have to understand that for all the riches of Russia as Europe’s raw material appendage, the Russian military power is not unlimited–at least in terms of the so-called “conventional armed forces.” Zhukov’s version that “Russian women will give birth [to more]” will obviously not work in this situation–the more Russia’s little soldiers come back home in coffins, the more unsteady Putin’s throne will become. The Russian propaganda TV works beautifully on Russian zombies for as long as they don’t have to bury their offspring in unmarked graves.

If I’m wrong, and it is still possible to solve the conflict through political means, without damaging the national interests of Ukraine–I will be extremely happy. Unfortunately, I don’t see any reasons for hope regarding this now.

2. In the context of the ATO, the season of rampant witch hunting has resumed. The public and various experts are beginning to blame the leadership of the ATO, the MoD [Defense Ministry] and the GS [General Staff] for failures. Military command sees the cause of failures in the invasion of the Russian army, and (still unobtrusively) notes the sins of the volunteer units (mostly, their “ungovernability”) and the insufficient level of morale among the mobilized [servicemen]. The highest leadership of Ukraine promises “personnel decisions” in the military.

The question is: who is right?

The answer goes as follows: it is an infrequent occurrence when everyone is right.

I’ll start with the most unpopular–with the criticism of an ordinary soldier, be it a volunteer or a mobilized serviceman. We find a thousand and one reasons to explain the lack of basic discipline in the ranks of our troops. These arguments sound convincing and it’s impossible to contradict them. Besides the tiny detail that no army can exist without discipline, and even more so, it is unable to successfully fight [without it]. It’s been tested for thousands of years, [we] don’t have to test [this theory].

I will get a response in the form of a question: so this is the soldier’s fault? To this, I will give a simple answer. Although I have the department of military journalism behind my shoulders, after all I started off in [military] service as an officer inside “the troops,” with the [military] personnel. The main lesson that I took away [from there]: there are no bad soldiers.

But in order for the biggest sloven to truly become a great warrior, they need commanders not just from among the likes of regular military school graduates, but the officers [who are] the leaders. Those [usually] prove themselves in their work. Now, the tricky question: how many of our sergeants or warrant officers who proved themselves, received the rank of second lieutenant as a result of the ATO, for example? Or is it such a big problem to make changes to the “Regulations on military service by relevant categories of servicemen” to assign the officer ranks in the “undeclared” war? How many platoon commanders who have shown themselves were promoted to the company and even the battalion level commanders? But in fact. such promotions are a normal practice of war, i.e., conditions under which anyone can show their best and worst qualities in the course of a few hours.

Now about the generals. If a general fails to fulfill his official duties–he should be removed from office, just like any other official who sits in his pants at work for nothing. In this respect, I fully agree with Yuri Butusov, who argues that the phrase “no one to replace [them with]” is not an argument. Few generals, and no one to choose from? Not a problem. Here, we [should] apply the principle of “natural selection,” i.e., the appointment of those senior officers who distinguished themselves, to the general’s office/position. Do not make a fetish of the general’s stripes when it comes to the fate of our Motherland.

3. And finally, about the Russian invasion. We are told that the Russians threw their armed forces at Donbas, and therefore everything got dramatically complicated.

Yes, this is a problem, and a colossal [one at that]. But what was our army constantly training for in theory–including the preparation of the very same generals at the relevant department of the Defense Academy? Well, not to the ATO after all! But first and foremost to the war with an enemy’s regular army. That is–precisely to the situation that has taken place nowadays.

I agree, there is nothing enjoyable about this, but let’s not pretend that we have been attacked by Martians, the issue of its confrontation being veiled by the darkness of secrecy. The Russian soldiers are of the same blood as the Russian mercenaries, they only differ by the absence of inscriptions on their graves. I don’t think that working on the algorithms of their send-off into these graves is an impossible task.

Residents of Mariupol are digging trenches to help Ukrainian soldiers defend the strategic port city. Photo: EPA

Residents of Mariupol are digging trenches to help Ukrainian soldiers defend the strategic port city. Photo: EPA

 

Residents of Mariupol form a human chain in protest against Russia's actions. Photo: EPA

Residents of Mariupol form a human chain in protest against Russia’s actions. Photo: EPA

The good news:

1. One of the main tasks in Donetsk Oblast is to save the southern direction, to prevent the Russian troops from taking Mariupol. The National Security and Defense Council said today that Ukrainian troops are building defenses in the city. They promise that Russian invaders have no chances in this direction.

This raises two questions. First, how sufficiently are the units that are preparing for defense (which are predominantly the National Guard), provided with heavy weapons? Secondly, according to our forecasts, the invasion of Mariupol can take place not only in the land theater [of operations], but also from the sea. Here, we only have the forces represented by border guards and their motorboats (for obvious reasons, the Navy ships from the Black Sea cannot be transferred to the Sea of ​​Azov). Are our forces ready to protect the coast?

Hopefully, military command has considered these moments.

2. The decision to impose new sanctions by the West against Russia will be made in the next few days.

The general mood in Europe is encouraging. The German leader Angela Merkel stated that the sanctions against Russia are necessary, in spite of their negative impact on the German economy. (By the way, judging by the Western media, Angela Horstovna [patronymic from Horst] again fell out of love with Putin, what a sin it is to mourn). British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that the presence of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine is “unjustified and unacceptable.” The Polish leadership has customarily supported [official] Kyiv as well. The head of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso got completely stunned by Putin’s statement that if he wanted to, “he would be able to take Kyiv in [the course of] two weeks.”

Here, we see two weak links. Firstly, funny guys from the OSCE, who mumble about the fact that it’s difficult for them to confirm the entry of Russian troops into Ukraine (well, it is clear as day: once you have enough brains to sit at a pair of border checkpoints, better to keep silent and do not sign on for the entire Ukrainian-Russian cordon).

And [secondly] there are these very greedy but not very smart leaders of Cyprus, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, who are [nervously] trembling over [financial] losses more than the security of the continent. Especially since the Czech Republic and Slovakia have themselves experienced from Hitler what Putin is now doing to Ukraine. They could have better remembered the lessons of history. Plus there’s the question, what kind of trust from Ukraine towards these neighboring countries can we talk about from a historical perspective? The answer is obvious.

Source: Dmitry Tymchuk FB

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This entry was posted in Dmitry Tymchuk, English, English News, South&Eastern Ukraine, War in Donbas and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

14 Responses to Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – September 1, 2014

  1. Barry Kfia says:

    We should NOT be offering Europe any peace of mind regarding their gas supply since it is the income from these gas sales that is funding Putin’s attack on Ukraine. Instead, our Army or “people’s battalions” should now be fully ready and able to destroy the gas transit lines entering Europe –and fully prepared to prevent their reconstruction until Putin is no longer in power. Europeans do not have the right to force Ukrainians to pay for Europe’s gas with our land, our future and our blood.

  2. Romania is with you ! #StopPutler

  3. Pingback: Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – September 1, 2014 | EUROMAIDAN PRESS | News and Opinion from Across Ukraine

  4. Well, there’s Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Cyprus off my vacation list. I won’t be visiting Paris, either.

  5. Pingback: Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – September 1, 2014 – Ukrainian News

  6. Why is it that Ukraine does not focus on getting straight answers from the USA and England about their inaction on the Budapest Agreement. However the USA and England do respect all other agreements with Russia with respect to arming Ukraine. Ukraine should push the fact that you have the technology and materials to become a Nuclear Power yet again as nobody has protected your territorial integrity as agreed in 1994.

    • pikos says:

      you cant expect direct US intervention.
      If they did intervene,that would be catastrophic for Ukraine.
      They can however(and they do from what i know)indirectly support you,by offering training experts,survailance tech etc.Frm my understading the UA is lacking UAV support,which is crucial for battlefield management,even small RC planes/copters mounted with cameras,could do the job.
      You cant be expecting others to spill ther blood for you,so make do with whatever you can,this isnt going to end fast,o be prepared about it and most of all,the winter.
      That is ofcourse,if you want your country whole(apart from crimea which is lost).

      • pikos says:

        I would like to add that youre a bit unfair towards Cyprus(although they act shortsighted)they to have lost 40% of their country due to the 1974 Turkish invasion.
        Last year,Germany bankrrupted them and made them,confiscate all bank deposits above 100k.Now if you take into account the russian money,being laundred and kept there,along with the fact that the island is half ovvupied and russia is a permanent member of the un security council,you get why they act,the way they do.

  7. Anatol Zukiwskyj says:

    1968 – Soviet forces invade Czechoslovakia, 1956 Soviet forces invade Hungary. The Czechs, Slovaks and Madjars have short memories. The Ruissian Federation is the Soviet Union incarnate.

  8. Nenad says:

    Eventually Ukranian army will gain experience, consolidate itself and become one of the best fighting forces in Europe. It takes time but Ukraine is on the right path. This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

    Support for Ukraine from Croatia.

  9. Che Zorba says:

    We don’t know what happens on the battlefield. We know what you tell us. From what you tell us there has been no application of basic military principles on the part of Ukraine so far. All there’s been is seize and hold tactics which only make you a target for the artillery and also make you prone to be encirced. In the vastness of the ukrainian plane, you do not focus on terrain, but on the enemy forces. You do not attempt to hold terrain. You attempt to destroy the enemy force.

    The russian forces are small and despersed over a 200km front. They are prone to be destroyed one after the other in a series of armored punches. An armored punch is composed of 3-4 brigades, operating together, falling like wolves on an enemy unit, destroying it then pulling back to reorganise and strike somewhere else. This wins the war and produces a body count for Kremlin. Marioupol is an example.

    Marioupol will be outflanked from the north. The outflanking force can be attacked by an armored punch while it’s on the move (and therefore out of balance). Don’t let ’em close the pocket and dig in, because you’ll have another encirclement to deal with.

    Now you have chosen to join the West. THE WESTERN BASTARDS ARE LOATH TO HELP SOMEONE WHO IS TROUBLE. IF YOU ARE IN TROUBLE THEY THINK YOU ARE A LOSER. YOU HAVE TO SHOW THEM U R STRONG TO FORCE THEM TO COME TO YOUR SIDE.

  10. anonymouse says:

    I hope Ukraine manages to organize a good defensive line and make Russians pay dearly for every inch of land taken – as you say, unfortunately it’s body bags coming home that defeated US in Vietnam, it was the same for Russia in Afghanistan so it seems it’s the same here.

    I’m ashamed that some of my countrymen are fighting on the Russian side – most of us from Serbia support Ukraine. Good luck.

  11. Pingback: Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – September 2, 2014 | Voices of Ukraine

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