Andrey Illarionov: 10 Theses
Yurii Vinnichuk, Economics Correspondent
March 14,2014, 08:00
Translated by Voices of Ukraine
During his lecture at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Andrey Illarionov, former advisor to Russia’s President Putin, talked about the Kremlin plan regarding Ukraine, about the reasons why Putin is not afraid of sanctions from the West, and under which circumstances the U.S. and NATO armies will help us.
Today, Illarionov is a senior researcher at the Cato Institute in the United States. He is reasearching the economic problems of the world. From 2000 to 2005, Illarionov was Presidential Advisor to Vladimir Putin. He left that post in 2006 and settled down in the United States. According to Ukrainian Pravda [Ukrainian Truth], for four years, Illarionov was involved in preparations for the G8 summit on behalf of the Kremlin.
Below are notes from Illarionov’s lecture regarding Russia’s desires towards Ukraine. The former Advisor to the Russian President informed the audience why Putin started to hate Ukraine and how the West can influence the situation.
1. Over the past century, the last time Ukraine was faced with a similar kind of crisis was probably in 1918. What you’re facing now can be compared in terms of scale and possible consequences only with that year. If you assess the ability to adequately respond to these challenges, then it seems to me that the government of Mykhailo Hrushevskiy was better prepared at that time than is the current government.
2. What is going on now? Aggression, invasion of the armed forces of one state to that of another with the seizure of facilities, with attacks on military units, and threats to people’s lives. This is one of the most flagrant violations of international law. The first stage of this agression, and it’s quite obvious, is the annexation of Crimea. Those who think that everything will stop at this point are profoundly mistaken. In the plan that was designed many years ago, this is only the first step. The next step is to destabilize South-Eastern Ukraine. Preferably, bringing the situation to a civil confrontation, and then to civil war. This is the most desirable (by the Kremlin, – INSIDER) state of Ukraine for the coming years.
3. One of the most important tasks of this operation is to show Ukraine, before the eyes of Ukrainians, the international community and Russian public opinion, as a failed state. As a territory of chaos. As a territory of lawlessness. As a territory where everyone is in a state of war with everyone – the West with East, Christians with Muslims, the left with the right.
4. In Putin’s plan there is also the following item, which the Kremlin leaders don’t stop talking about. They say that in Kyiv there was a coup, a violent revolution. That non-legitimate authorities rule in Kyiv now. And the legitimate authorities are, to their mind, in Crimea at the moment. In the documents of the Russian Foreign Ministry they talk about the Nazi, Banderite and gangsters regime in Kyiv. Therefore the aim of the third direction is a change of government in Kyiv.
5. And here the question arises – for what reason has all of this fallen upon Ukraine? Maybe not everybody is aware of the kind of regime in Russia. Of all the horrors that you have in Ukraine, they are still just a small copy of the Russian regime. The Yanukovych regime is but kids’ toys compared to Putin’s regime. The Yanukovych regime has blood ties with Putin’s regime. Therefore, the downfall of the first regime is is the heaviest blow for the second. It is a threat for someone who symbolizes exactly the same regime, but has more power and resources.
6. EuroMaidan is an anti-Soviet and anti-communist revolution. This is the same kind of revolution as those that happened 20 years ago in many countries of Central and Eastern Europe, but which in fact did not occur in Russia, Belarus and Asia. An anti-Soviet revolution occurred in Georgia in 2003. But the Orange Revolution in Ukraine didn’t turn out to be such. And since Soviet Russia, Stalin’s symbols, institutions and ideas are being restored in Russia now, it is also a blow to the ideology that is reborn (in Russia).
7. What is the most important thing Putin is afraid of most of all in Kyiv? What does he most hate Ukraine for? What is this dire revenge for? It’s Maidan as a new state institution. The second thing that scares Putin is the emergence of a Ukrainian Saakashvili. A person who embodies all three elements of the recent revolution: the anti-criminal movement, anti-Soviet and anti-imperial movement. That, the Kremlin fears most of all.
8. Try to wear these shoes [Putin’s], in this body and imagine: you are chosen by divine providence to unite the Russian lands. You’ve been given carte blanche to implement the historic dream – reuniting a disunified people. And nearby is a country which you don’t consider to be a state, as you openly stated during the NATO summit in Bucharest as far back as in April of 2008. There is no such state, and the territory which Ukraine occupies belongs to Russian lands. And now such a historic moment occurs: the country is in a crisis, there is no effective government, no institutions. Providence itself makes you to do this. And when, in the balance, on one scale hangs such a mission and on the other are sanctions, will you be afraid of the latter? Will the decision to exclude you from the G8 influence you? Or exclusion from UN membership? Just think about it. Heaven talks to you, and they are talking about some papers. And in the end, sanctions are over sooner or later, while the land will remain.
9. There will be no real actions from the West. Barack Obama may have the kindest feelings, he may profess the most wonderful ideas, but it’s the same as reading a Bible to a thug in a back street (the issue being about the diplomatic communication between USA and Russia regarding Ukraine, – INSIDER). This has no impact on Putin’s behavior. What methods can be effective? We remember 2008. The Russian-Georgian war. In many ways it’s a very similar story. How did they manage to stop Russian troops then? First of all – the unexpected resistance of the Georgian army. Second – public opinion. And third, and most importantly – a demonstration of the military readiness of U.S. forces influenced the decision to stop the aggressor’s fire.
10. Only a real threat of the use of armed forces can stop tanks. They cannot be stopped by the resolutions of the most respected oranizations. To stop tanks, to have the possibility to use the armed forces of the USA and NATO, there must be national resistance. If such a resistance is absent, then noone will ever lift a finger to protect another country. If the country demonstrates its will and ability to resist, then, with a high level of probability, after a while, they might come to help.