Dmitry Tymchuk, Head of the Center for Military and Political Research, Coordinator of the Information Resistance group
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
Brothers and sisters!
Here’s the Summary for September 17, 2014 (for previous summary, please see Summary for September 16, 2014).
The bad news:
1. Negative processes are unfolding around P. Poroshenko’s resonant law regarding ‘special status’ for districts in Donbas.
According to our information, this law evoked an explosive reaction from the local mercenaries both in the DNR and LNR [Donetsk and Luhanks People's Republics] – here they were considered a ‘victory’ over the Ukrainian ‘junta.’ But the important part is not the terrorists: their opinion has not interested anyone in either Kyiv or Moscow for a long time. What was important was the Kremlin’s reaction, and not in official statements from the Russian MFA, but in Shoygu’s secret orders to the Russian troops in Donbas. While the Russian army, judging from what happened in the past 24 hours (for example, today the Russian spetsnaz stormed our positions on the territory of the airport in Donetsk) did not get orders to become more active, but neither did they receive orders for a ‘ceasefire.’
This means that, by Moscow, the ‘special status’ law was deemed to be not an achievement of their strategic goal, but simply an interim success in their aggression. Which means we will not get an opportunity for a full-scale breather, for further attempts to resolve the conflict by peaceful means (to placate the international community and with minimal chances of success) and prepare for a radical solution to the problem by military means. However, there is a chance that in the next few hours the Russian-terrorist troops will still get orders to stop, however the probability of this is about as high as that of Valuev getting knocked up.
In any case, it is necessary to immediately do what we have said previously: take up a monumental defense and localize the source of the illness. Reports that there is no military engineering equipment are strange: they say there is nothing with which to dig trenches. This is why God invented mobilization: the country has been in a state of permanent construction for 15 years at least, and in every backward town there is a plethora of construction structures and companies with bulldozers and excavators, so what is the problem?
2. A couple more words on this law. Yes, this law is a shame for Ukraine, this cannot be denied. But let us admit the obvious: it would have been more shameful to hand over at least all of Donbas (this threat by the way, has not been eliminated as of today), also at the cost of many new losses on our part.
Putin continues his game, but a considerable part of his army was removed from Ukraine before the advent of this law. Unfortunately, our government has shrouded many details of the dialogue with Moscow – regarding the Donbas – with secrecy, in order to understand what part of their obligations Russia is executing.
However, I consider the main problem of the Ukrainian government within the context of the given law to be the fact that starting August 20th, all of our military structures were given clear orders to thoroughly filter information regarding the situation in the conflict zone and prevent negative news from surfacing. By doing this, the government dug itself into a hole: trying to convince the public that all is well and we are fully in control of the situation, now it is very difficult to explain that in reality we don’t have the possibility of fighting successfully while Putin supports the insurgents. And the given law emerged to get out of this situation.
By getting a negative response in society, the government is learning a lesson in truth. Will it be able to grasp it – I don’t know.
3. While Russian servicemen kill Ukrainians in Donbas, a bunch of Ukrainian deputies called the ‘Parliamentary Group For Peace and Stability,’ created by members from the Party of Regions and Communist Party factions, went to Russia.
The Russian State Duma gave them a standing ovation. Of course: there have been few instances in world history when Parliamentarians from a victim country crawl up on their knees into the capital of the aggressor country to talk about ‘peace and cooperation.’ State Duma Speaker S. Naryshkin, [while] wiping tears of emotion off his face, shook their hands and asked them to come back.
These clowns were deciding how to ‘restore trust between our countries.’ I am crying together with Naryshkin. I can just picture it: in an alleyway a 6 1/2-foot renegade slits the throat of a member of the State Duma’s family member, and at the same time with anguish and sorrow asks Naryshkin how he should ‘reestablish trust’ with him. Damn, a philosophical problem indeed.
The good news:
1. The temporary investigative committee of the Verkhovna Rada, in its report regarding the use of funds given to the army from the state budget and collected by the citizens, spoke about the main mistakes in the army provision system: the lack of unification, ignorance of real needs of the servicemen, and the bureaucracy and formalism present. This was stated by the head of the committee, I. Herashchenko.
You forgot a very important point: total corruption. The main battles with it are yet to come.
But the very fact that the system of army provisions has finally ended up within the scope of the government is definitely positive. Naturally, many politicians will try to sell themselves using this subject against the background of the electoral campaigns. My personal opinion: it doesn’t matter. If it brings at least a fraction of a real solution in the shape of changing the situation, let it be so.
It is no secret that today, without the help of volunteers, the Ukrainian military in the conflict zone would have it very bad: Ministry systems for provision are not managing, to put it mildly. I am personally convinced that after each significant instance of assistance to the army by the volunteers (with basic resources: bulletproof vests, equipment, ammunition etc.), an official investigation has to begin: who and why is to blame for the fact that the activists are forced to close the ‘gaps’ in provisions instead of the state structures.
The volunteer movement – is everything, it is the pride of our country. But let’s also not forget that these folks are forced to do someone else’s work. And their feat must not remove responsibility from those who have shifted their functions onto the shoulders of concerned citizens while quietly receiving a salary and spitting at the ceiling (unless occupied in more interesting activities from the point of view of criminal law activities). Otherwise, we will never cure the logistics of the army.
2. Speaking of interesting activities. In Dnipropetrovsk, the SBU arrested an officer from a recruiting office, who freed those who were unwilling to go to war due to mobilization for bribes. The price was 6 thousand UAH [approximately $458.50 USD], after which the local pacifists acquired a medical certificate regarding their unfitness for military service.
Can’t they make a show out of the court case? Our recruiting offices have all become commercial structures on the wave of mobilization (however, they were this way before as well): they only shied away from hanging price lists on their doors. We should have started publicly whipping their greedy hands back in March – then mobilization would have been more civilized.
3. In the United States a draft law [bill] was submitted to Congress on new sanctions against the Russian Federation, and support for Ukraine, one of the points of which prescribes providing Kyiv with weapons.
According to the bill, the U.S. President will be empowered to grant Ukraine a means to counter the advanced weapons, including anti-tank weapons, reconnaissance (including drones), ammunition for personnel, etc.
It is clear that the bill – is far from being a law. But the very fact that such a document appeared in the U.S. Congress, in light of the E.U.’s continuous song regarding the impossibility to give Ukraine a weapon, is inspiring.
Source: Dmitry Tymchuk FB