By Vitaly Portnikov
04.27.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
The plan is unfeasible because achieving it will be followed by the collapse of Russia, according to the Ukrainian journalist and political commentator.
Putin has a great desire to occupy all of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Belarus and other former Soviet republics, Portnikov writes in his commentary on Gordonua.com. Restoration of the Soviet Union–is the minimum program for Putin, he will carry out further aggression in central Europe. Putin’s Plan and its environs consists of several points: “First, the restoration of the Soviet Union; second, to return to the situation of the Yalta conference of 1945 when the USSR controlled the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Third, restore Russian influence in Asia through cooperation in China,” Portnikov stated.
But Putin has not yet made a final decision, because in Moscow there is a continued confrontation between two opposing groups and the Russian President hasn’t decided on the [final] strategy, concludes the journalist.
“We need to understand that in the Kremlin there is a conflict of opinion between the conditional “hawks” and the “doves.” The “hawks” believe that Russia must achieve recognition as a superpower through any means possible, including the continuation of aggression against Ukraine. They are convinced: the Putin regime will not be subjected to any suffering by the West. The “doves” are convinced that they have to act so that there is no external or internal threat to the regime. They are very well aware that within Russia itself, the processes could now begin that will create significant economic and political difficulties for the ruling elite, that from one stone to the next in the regime will not be left unturned,” Vitaly Portnikov says.
According to Portnikov, the Kremlin’s contradictory statements reflect this struggle between the “hawks” and the “doves” precisely. Few people are able to understand the real plans of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle.
“Putin only makes it look as if he made up his mind about Ukraine a long time ago. In realty, he also has his doubts about acting in accordance with the principle of “two steps forward and one step back.” This is his psychology: Putin is not a military man, but an intelligence service operative. Such people always act very carefully, unwittingly not wanting to, they weigh the possible risks already on a subconscious level.”
Vitaly Portnikov believes that Putin is now fluctuating between the two positions. “What he chooses–a victory frenzy followed by the collapse of Russia or a victory of common sense with the possibility of saving and modernizing the state,– I don’t know. But take note: the logic of empire collapse–and Russia is exactly at this stage now, suggests that the people who are currently at the helm, are making exactly the kind of choices that facilitate the disappearance of the empire,” he announced.
Therefore, the restoration of the USSR and Russia’s further advance into Europe will not succeed, the journalist states:
“This is an unworkable plan. The ‘doves’ among the Russian leadership believe that this approach will lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation into many independent states. The ‘hawks’ sincerely believe that Russia, with its commodity-dependent economies, outdated army, and the lack of political management of the system, at the regional level can become a superpower.”
Source: Gordonua.com
Voices of Ukraine 