By Sergey Vysotskyi, LIGABusinessInform
20.01.2014 17:59
Translated by Anna Kryvous
Source: Source: http://liga.net/opinion/168678_pochemu-bolshinstvu-regionalov-nado-opasatsya-unichtozheniya-maydana.htm
The power scenario will give rise to a partisan struggle in response, and the first victims will be “Regionals,” security forces and mid-level officials
Sergey Vysotsky, photo: LІGABіznesІnfor
It is hard to understand now, how exactly the clashes on Hrushevsky St. began. If, according to the words of the opposition leaders yesterday, they were results of provocations, then such provocations exceeded the intended boundaries. At the peak of the situation there were about thirty thousand people on the street, and around five thousand of them actively participated in the clashes. Furthermore, activists of the right-wing radical organisations, though being the backbone and the ram, were not the majority at all. The main bulk consisted of common people who are simply “fed up.” Provocation was to give rise to a reason for the dispersal of Maidan. However, the hands of police forces did not reach Maidan that night: they found themselves drawn to the government block, with Molotov cocktails being thrown at their heads.
Right radicals or Automaidan activists might be accused of provocations, since they summoned people to picket the Verkhovna Rada. After the adoption of repressive laws on January 16, there appeared an indicative demotivator/poster on the Internet, “If you’ll get 2 years in prison for arson and blockage of a house of the people’s deputy Kol…ko, why restrain yourself?” On the eve of the next Veche [Meeting] on January 19 it was clear that thousands of people saw the Sunday meeting as the last possibility for defending their infringed rights and liberties. Military speeches were heard before the meeting: many were going precisely “to war.” The passivity of the opposition leaders clearly did not correspond to the mood of the people and activists who were threatened with imprisonment of up to 15 years under the new laws. When politics end, the street enters the scene.
Consequently, what journalists and experts had been warning society and politicians for several months happened: as soon as people feel they have nothing to lose, except for the possibility of being beaten and sentenced, the protest stopped being peaceful. It issued challenges to the politicians and state.
When politics end, the street enters the scene.
One real peaceful way of settling the conflict is the resignation of Viktor Yanukovych, of the government, and forming a new majority in the Verkhovna Rada with re-elections. It doesn’t concern opposition; the point is that the violent mass of people who are ready to go to more and more extremes day by day will not accept other forms of compromise. Protestors regard the committee Klyuev-Portnov-Lukash as defiance. Andrey Klyuev is seen as the ideologist of power pressures put on Maidan, Elena Lukash stated that police had the right to use force against the protesters, Andrey Portnov is thought to be the supervisor of bills from January 16th and the coordinator of a judicial-repressive vertical.
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It is highly unlikely that Yanukovych will make such concessions. Maidan will regard the committee only as a way of drawing up Interior Ministry reserves to Kyiv. Therefore, parliament will be the only chance of political settlement. Now all MPs from the power-holding majority, as well as judges and law enforcement officers should understand that if the mass protest is fiercely suppressed by military weapons and deaths of people, they – the middle ranking authorities – will become the first victims of the partisan struggle, deployed in the country. The terror in response is inevitable in the event of the forceful suppression of protests. Thousands of people will support such a “road map” of resistance, which became obvious last night in Kyiv on Hrushevsky St.
And it is hard to imagine the scale of the force of a counteraction to the repressions of the authorities in Kyiv. While some political compromises are available, the personal political futures of many “regionals” has perspective. When the first person dies of bullet on the street, the supporters of the authorities in the parliament and the officials will face the issue of physical security and Ukraine may lose its statehood. At present, it depends only on the sober thinking of the members of the Party of Regions and the sponsors of its party, as well as on the degree of international pressure put on them, whether the scenario of full-scale civil conflict will be realized.
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