Andreas Umland: NO EU SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA? SOONER OR LATER, RUSSIAN GAS WILL STOP FLOWING TO EUROPE IN ANY WAY
A note to the many EU “realists” not interested in discussing a reduction of Russian gas deliveries to the EU as a way to sanction Moscow. This is now a military and not any longer economic issue. If there is a war in Ukraine, at some point, the Russian gas will not any longer get to the EU.
Much of that gas goes through pipelines in Ukraine. If Russia does not behave, the pipelines will be blocked or blown up by Ukrainians sooner or later. I could even imagine Ukrainian “partisans” engaging in economic terrorism against Gazprom in Russia, Beltransgaz in Belarus, and Nord Stream in the Baltic Sea. War is war.
To be sure, Russia may choose to conduct only a “hidden war” in Ukraine – instigating violence, anarchy and chaos especially in Eastern and Southern Ukraine using Russian “tourists” who are passing the open border between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainians will, however, understand what is going on. If things get bad, the gas WILL stop flowing. Count on it!