Aleksey Blyuminov, for Hvylya

Inspirational speeches about a Ukrainian nation being born in Maidan have a grain of truth in them. I will explain why.

Public movements like Maidan exemplify civic organization, unity and attempt to achieve goals that are considered to be immensely meaningful and priceless by its participants.

And this is how such public mobilization and unity is viewed by a pro-Russian TV journalist from Odessa, “In a large village in Lviv region in Ukrainian West, there is a feeling of full mobilization. Church bells are ringing, the lines of people going to Kyiv resemble batallions. Those who are staying behind bring large boxes of apples, lard, and honey for those going to Maidan. Doctors from a wellness center remind their patients that some of them will be taking an unpaid leave and going to Kyiv as well.”

Meanwhile we do not assess or analyze the quality of Maidan’s goals because there are more important things to consider.

What is current Ukrainian society like? It is split. Not into two opposing camps with differing goals and values as their Russian neighbors argue. The society is split roughly in half: with one side having developed its own identity, and the other one still undecided. As a result, the first side fights for the second, successfully drawing it in and assimilating its most active residents.

What does this mean? Among amorphous Ukrainian masses there are active citizens who have determined their geopolitical, national, and state points of view. They have their final goal and they are planning their future around it. To reach their goals, these individuals are pushing the rest of society with them. This is not their first year of pushing for their goals; they have been doing it continuously and methodically. Also, this side has their active few who devotedly defend their choice and impose it on everybody else, from leaders above to foot soldiers at the bottom. These activists have polished mechanisms of internal and external communication as well as self-mobilization; they have the media and the NGOs. They make points that are attractive to the undecided masses.

That is why the victory of Maidan, if it is understood not as the stand on barricades at present, but as a large and holistic nation-building over time, is not a point for discussion, but rather a matter of time. Those who clearly understand what they want, have a goal, and instruments to achieve that goal, who have the energy to defend their goal at expense of discomfort, and, finally, those who have enough aggression and drive to convert others, are bound to win. They might step back now, but at the first opportunity “the drums of revolution” will beat again. This will last until they stumble upon the resistance of another side that has conflicting goals.

They say that there is a war between two sides of Ukraine, and that we are at the frontlines of this war. This is nonsense. There is no war. The war is happening in the flushed brains of professional Russophiles or builders of the so-called sofabound New Russia. In fact, this “war” currently has no other side. Thus, there is no war. We are dealing with a natural process of ideological invasion by Maidan supporters of those undecided, and their gradual amenability to concede.

If there is a real subject in the Southeast of Ukraine who is ready to fight for real goals, and not for New Russia or the “Russian world”, then the collective Maidan will soon realize it. And Maidan will feel it in its own limitations. If the victorious Maidan does not meet any opposition in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Kharkiv or Lugansk, then these regions are not indifferent to its ideas. Not because Maidnan’s ideas are their ideas, but because their motives are not against it.

Today, there is no other alternative to Maidan in Ukraine. All these pro-Russian movements are nonsense. Southeastern population is passive and therefore unreliable. People in the East that are halfway active are already supporting European integration. Therefore, if there are young ambitious people in the Eastern part of Ukraine, naturally as college graduates they are geared towards Maidan. Because opposition activists are looking into the future, and Maidan’s end goals give young people a great opportunity for achievement. That is why young journalists from Lugansk dream about going to Lviv. Lviv is a cultural Mecca, portrayal of ideal Ukraine manifested on Maidan. When people from Lviv go to Donbass area, they go there with a sense of superiority about taking neophites on to their Big Project.

Naturally, in the situation of real opposition, when on one side we have active and immensely motivated population, determined and ready to impose its own point of view, and on the other side, an apathetic quagmire, there is no question as to who will win. Popuation in quagmire cannot win. And its defeat is just a matter of time. If one side of the country protests on Maidan for its goals, and the other side “is employed,” then with mathematical inevitability the “employed” side of population will live under the rules of reality the active few won over for them.

It does not happen in any other way.

Let’s talk about the defenders of the status quo. If Maidan as we already determined is a vanguard of the formed population, then what about its opponents? Opponents of Maidan are very interesting people. They appeal to some masses in Southeast to unite against “brown scum”, but in practice they rely on Berkut police and interior troops instead of nonexistent masses. Because unlike masses of Southeast, Berkut has a point of view. Depending on situation, police officers can remain loyal to the current regime, or find a new employer. Like Maidan.

Opponents of Maidan think in defensive logic and thereby lose. Civic organization, ability to forgo work, education, business for camping out in downtown Kyiv to fight for abstract and illusory goals, all what is a definite advantage for Maidan against the present government, is considered as heresy or deviance that needs to be annihilated at the first try. Conformity is to go to work. Not protest, or live in a tent, or stand by barricades in downtown. Stay in the stables, and let Berkut and interior troops protect the ideology.

Naturally, in do or die time, governmental supporters are an inevitably unorganized and passive population in a quagmire, which stays at home and curses Maidan while eating its sandwich, waiting for the government to put stop to protests. Meanwhile, Berkut will not save the government that is left standing one-on-one with organized opposition. More precisely, the government will not be saved for long. And when the critical point comes, the government will have other goals than to protect its Russian loyalist and his monuments from the anger of revolutionary crowd.

Instead of helping their supporters to organize themselves, incite them with ideas and ensure their readiness for real protests, Maidan opponents curse everyone whose employment does not bar them from fighting for their ideas. Or, they gather under the governing flag, completely aware that the government will not solve issues important to those against Maidan. The government will solve their own issues and will not fight for “joining Russia,” “victory of the Russians in Ukraine”, or entry to the Customs Union. Therefore, Maidan’s opponents will have the chance to successfully confront Maidan only when they represent the population ready to forgo employment, education, and business for a couple of weeks spent on barricades in the street.

This is the reality we have been able to experience, my friends.

http://hvylya.org/analytics/politics/pochemu-maydan-pobedit.html