Today, Crimeans “voted”. Given the barrage of media coverage of this event, I hardly feel it’s worthwhile to comment on it further: the “referendum” was illegal and will not be recognized by any country other than Russia; the result is a foregone conclusion. A more interesting question is “what’s next?”

After Prime Minister Yatseniuk’s return from the US on Friday, and his public statement warning that NATO would not be intervening militarily into the current dispute with Russia, Ukraine’s government seems to have finally begun real preparations for war. A law allowing for the formation of a National Guard (to consist primarily of former Maidan Self-Defense forces) was passed, troop movements and training has intensified, mass mobilization of reserves is set to begin this week. The Ukrainian Defense Minister, First Deputy Prime Minister (himself a former general), and other highly placed officials (including former…