Looks like the scenario I’ve posted two days ago is now unfolding:

Here’s my scenario for what Putin is going to do in the next weeks.

His plans to do a deal with the west are failing: European and the US simply cannot agree to a partition of Ukraine in a Russian sphere and a western sphere.

Putin will move to plan B: use his experts for troublemaking for creating a conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Then he will have a justification to send in troops. He will create a South Ossetia-like situation with Russian “peacekeepers”.

All along the process he will stay below the threshold that would trigger the third level of European sanctions, economic sanctions.

By creating a “frozen” conflict in Eastern Ukraine, he’s going to undermine effectively all efforts to build Ukrainian statehood.

His short- and mid-term goal is “denial of access”: I can’t have Ukraine, but you won’t have it either. EU and later Nato won’t expand. Ukraine will fail.

And Putin keeps the option to get control of entire Ukraine in perhaps some years.