Thomas Theiner

Will Putin invade Eastern Ukraine? Difficult to tell. Many of us never expected him to invade Crimea, but he did. What next? Where to now? The flabby reaction of the EU and US to the faked poll in Crimea March 16 will certainly encourage Putin to continue raising the stakes. However, the number of troops deployed by Russia so far suggests that an invasion is implausible.

According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Tenyukh, 60,000 Russian troops have been deployed along Ukraine’s eastern border and another 22,000 in Crimea. While certainly able to invade Ukraine and occupy areas in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, 82,000 troops are hardly enough to conquer all of Ukraine or to garrison occupied areas.